Prediction for match Leon — Cruz Azul

Match Analysis: Leon vs Cruz Azul

On January 11th in Liga MX, Leon will face Cruz Azul. The odds clearly favor Cruz Azul: their victory is priced at 1.76, while a win for Leon is at 4.28, and a draw is at 3.68. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Cruz Azul win - 52.92%, draw - 25.31%, Leon win - 21.76%. The lower odds for a Cruz Azul win confirm their status as favorites in this matchup according to the bookmakers. The match promises to be interesting in terms of the battle for points, considering the current form of the teams and recent match statistics.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Leon has shown 56.2% ball possession, averages 2.2 yellow cards per game, makes 12.4 fouls, and records 1 offside. Over the same period, Cruz Azul had 53.8% ball possession, earned 2.4 yellow cards, committed 12 fouls, and was caught offside 1.6 times. In their last three matches, Leon lost to Puebla 1-2, was defeated by Club America 0-2, and drew with UNAM Pumas 1-1. Cruz Azul recently lost to Flamengo 1-2 and drew twice with Tigres UANL (1-1 and 1-1). In their last head-to-head on July 27, 2025, Cruz Azul thrashed Leon 4-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Leon played over 2.5 goals only once, with under 2.5 goals occurring four times. Cruz Azul had over 2.5 goals twice and under three times. Leon's average total goals over five matches is 2.2, while Cruz Azul's is 2.4. Leon scores an average of 0.4 and concedes 1.8, whereas Cruz Azul scores 1.2 and concedes 1.2. Leon went over 1.5 goals in the first half only once, Cruz Azul twice. In the second half, Leon went over 1.5 goals twice, Cruz Azul three times. Leon most frequently scores between the 46th-60th minutes (38%), Cruz Azul towards the end, from the 76th to the 90th minute (33%). Leon concedes most frequently in four different intervals (25% each), Cruz Azul from the 61st to the 75th minute (38%). Considering this data and the balance of totals, a bet on over 2.25 goals at 1.52 seems justified: both teams can create chances, and Cruz Azul consistently scores more than one goal per game.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Leon averages 6.2 corners per match, Cruz Azul 4.8. Over the last five matches, Leon went over 9.5 corners four times, Cruz Azul twice. If considering total corners, the line closest to the combined average of both teams (11) is 11.0: odds for over 11 corners are 2.65, for under - 1.36. Cruz Azul is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.67. In this match, one can expect active play on the wings, increasing the likelihood of a high number of corner kicks. Leon consistently delivers many corners, and Cruz Azul can maintain the pace, so a bet on over 11 corners seems logical for this match.