Prediction for match Mantova — Monza

Odds and probability percentages for the match outcome

In Serie B on May 1, Mantova will face Monza. The odds for the main outcomes are as follows: Monza win is at 1.73, a draw at 3.72, and a Mantova win is priced at 4.56. According to the probability percentages calculated for this match, Monza has a 54.22% chance of winning, the draw is at 25.21%, and Mantova has a 20.57% chance of victory. This setup makes Monza the favorite for the match, with a noticeable gap in probability between the teams. The betting line also includes options for totals and individual performances, but Monza receives the most support in the main odds.

Team results and statistics

Looking at ball possession stats, Mantova averages 60.4% over a five-match series, while Monza averages 47.4%. For yellow cards, Mantova averages 2.2 per game, Monza 1.4. Fouls are recorded 15.4 times per match for Mantova, 11.6 for Monza, and offsides: 1.6 versus 1.2. In their last three matches, Mantova played as follows: April 25 - Südtirol - Mantova 0-3, April 18 - Mantova - Avellino 0-2, April 12 - Spezia - Mantova 0-2. Monza's last three results were: April 24 - Monza - Modena 1-0, April 17 - Sampdoria - Monza 0-3, April 11 - Monza - Bari 2-0. In their head-to-head game on August 23 last year, Monza defeated Mantova 1-0.

How many goals to expect?

In terms of scoring, Mantova's average number of goals per match over five games is 2.2, while Monza's is 2. Mantova scores an average of 1.4 and concedes 0.8, Monza scores 1.6 and concedes 0.4. The over 2.5 goals total was achieved 2 times out of 5 for Mantova, and 1 time out of 5 for Monza, indicating a trend towards low-scoring games. The first half over 1.5 goals occurred once for both teams, in the second half, Mantova had it twice and Monza once. Mantova most frequently scores in the intervals 0-15, 46-60, and 76-90 minutes (33% each), while Monza scores most in the 46-60 minute interval (40%). In terms of goals conceded, Mantova is vulnerable in the 31-45 and 76-90 minute intervals (38% each), and Monza in the 0-15 and 76-90 intervals (40% each). Overall, both teams are not prone to high-scoring matches, and Monza is noted for a solid defense. Against this backdrop, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.91 seems logical: both teams have an under-profile for totals, average goal figures do not exceed 2.2, and under 2.5 has predominated in recent matches.

Corners: numbers and potential bets

For corners, Mantova averages 3.8 over five games, Monza 6. The frequency of over 9.5 corners for Mantova is 1 out of 5, and for Monza 2 out of 5. If you take the sum of the average corners for both teams (3.8 + 6 = 9.8), the closest line is the corners total of 9.5. The odds for this total present both options: over 9.5 and under 9.5, however, the frequency of the over is not very high. Statistically, Monza takes more corners, and Mantova falls behind in this component. In such a situation, it is logical to consider a cautious bet on the corners total around 9.5, as well as to pay attention to Monza's advantage in the number of corners taken in recent matches. Overall, the match does not promise a large number of corners, but Monza is capable of creating an edge in this aspect.