Prediction for match Mazatlán — Toluca

Match Analysis: Mazatlán vs Toluca

The Liga MX clash between Mazatlán and Toluca is scheduled for 23.04.2026. According to the 1X2 odds, Toluca is the clear favorite: their victory is priced at 1.39, a draw is at 4.90, and a win for Mazatlán is at 6.67. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Toluca 67.02%, draw 19.01%, Mazatlán 13.97%. This setup reflects the bookmakers' confidence in Toluca's superiority, which is also confirmed by the recent match statistics of both teams. In this encounter, Toluca is expected to control the game and create more dangerous opportunities in front of the opponent's goal.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at additional metrics, Mazatlán has an average possession of 40.2% over their last five matches, with an average of 2.2 yellow cards, 10.4 fouls, and 1 offside. Toluca significantly outperforms in ball control with 62.6%, and also has fewer yellow cards (1) and fouls (9.2), although they have more offsides at 2.6. Mazatlán's last three matches were: 18.04.2026 - Mazatlán vs Querétaro 1-1, 12.04.2026 - UNAM Pumas vs Mazatlán 3-1, 04.04.2026 - Necaxa vs Mazatlán 2-1. Toluca's last three results: 19.04.2026 - Club América vs Toluca 2-1, 16.04.2026 - LA Galaxy vs Toluca 0-3, 13.04.2026 - Toluca vs Atlético San Luis 1-1. Their last head-to-head meeting was on 28.09.2025: Toluca vs Mazatlán 3-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In terms of scoring, Mazatlán averages 2.6 goals per match over five games, while Toluca averages 3. Mazatlán scores an average of 0.8 goals and concedes 1.8, while Toluca scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2. Over 2.5 goals were seen in 2 out of 5 matches for Mazatlán, and 3 out of 5 for Toluca. Looking at halves, Mazatlán had over 1.5 goals in the first half 4 times out of 5, but only 1 in the second half. For Toluca, it was the opposite: over 1.5 goals in the second half 4 times out of 5, but only 1 in the first half. Mazatlán most frequently scores in the first 15 minutes (40%), and concedes between the 31st and 45th minute (75%). Toluca's most frequent scoring periods are the 31-45, 61-75, and 76-90 minute intervals (25% each), while they concede most often in the 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minute periods (29% each). Overall, both teams tend to play high-scoring matches, especially in the second half. Toluca has a consistent attack and regularly goes over 2.5 goals, while Mazatlán's defense is not particularly reliable. In this situation, a bet on "Both Teams to Score: Yes" at 1.60 seems logical, considering both teams have reasons to score: Toluca's high average goals and Mazatlán's regular scoring in the first half even against strong opponents.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

For the average number of corners over five matches, Mazatlán has 4.6, and Toluca has 4.8. The frequency of over 9.5 corners for Mazatlán is 5 out of 5, and for Toluca, it's 2 out of 5. Considering the total corners, the line closest to the average sum (9.4) is 9.5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.82, and for under 9.5, it's 1.93. Toluca is the favorite for corner outcomes (1.24). Given that Mazatlán's last five matches all had 10 or more corners, and Toluca reached this less often, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems reasonable. It's also worth noting that both teams are capable of earning set pieces, which further supports the over total corners option.