Prediction for match Nantes — Marseille

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In Ligue 1, Nantes will face off against Marseille on May 2, 2026. According to the 1X2 odds, Marseille is the favorite: their victory is priced at 1.75, a draw at 4.27, and a win for Nantes at 4.78. The outcome probabilities are distributed as follows: Marseille win - 56.31%, draw - 23.08%, Nantes win - 20.61%. This reflects Marseille's advantage based on their current form and recent match statistics.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Nantes played as follows: April 26 - Rennes vs Nantes - 2-1, April 22 - PSG vs Nantes - 3-0, April 19 - Nantes vs Brest - 1-1. Marseille's last three results are: April 26 - Marseille vs Nice - 1-1, April 18 - Lorient vs Marseille - 2-0, April 10 - Marseille vs Metz - 3-1. In the last head-to-head game on January 4, 2026, Marseille lost to Nantes 0-2. Over a five-match series, Nantes averaged 37.8% possession, 2 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Marseille averaged 57% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 10.4 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. This indicates Marseille's superior ball control and slightly better defensive discipline.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Nantes averaged 1.6 goals per game, scoring 0.4 and conceding 1.2. Marseille's average total goals were higher at 2.8, with the team scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6. Nantes had over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches, while Marseille had 3 out of 5. In the first half, Nantes had over 1.5 goals in 2 out of 5 games, while Marseille had none. In the second half, Nantes had none over 1.5, but Marseille had 4 out of 5. Goal intervals show Nantes most frequently scores in the first 15 minutes (50%) and concedes between the 31st-45th and 76th-90th minutes (50% each). Marseille most often scores between the 46th-60th minutes (33%) and concedes from the 76th-90th minutes (60%). Considering both teams have over 2.5 goals in some matches and Marseille's strong second-half profile, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.70 seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Over the last 5 matches, Nantes averaged 5.6 corners, while Marseille averaged 6.8. In a five-match series, Nantes had over 9.5 corners in 3 out of 5 matches, while Marseille had 2 out of 5. The total closest to the average sum (12.4) is 11.5: odds for over 11.5 are 3.42, and under 11.5 are 1.23. Marseille is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.51. Both teams deliver a fair number of corners, making it logical to consider betting on over 9.5 total corners or Marseille's individual corner total for additional bets.