Prediction for match Sassuolo — Milan

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In Serie A on May 3, 2026, Sassuolo will face Milan. The main odds for the outcome are as follows: Sassuolo's victory is priced at 4.54, a draw at 4.24, and Milan's win at 1.79. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Milan - 55.05%, draw - 23.24%, Sassuolo - 21.71%. Thus, Milan is the favorite according to the odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Sassuolo has averaged 42.6% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 0.8 offsides per game. Over the same period, Milan has averaged 54.4% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 8 fouls, and 0.8 offsides per match. Sassuolo's last three results were: April 26, 2026, Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo, April 17, 2026, Sassuolo 2-1 Como, April 12, 2026, Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo. Milan's last three games were: April 26, 2026, Milan 0-0 Juventus, April 19, 2026, Verona 0-1 Milan, April 11, 2026, Milan 0-3 Udinese. The last head-to-head between the teams was on December 14, 2025, ending Milan 2-2 Sassuolo.

Totals Statistics

In Sassuolo's last five matches, the total over 2.5 goals occurred three times, under twice. For Milan, it was over twice and under three times. Sassuolo averages 2.2 goals per match, Milan 2.0. Sassuolo scores an average of 1.2 and concedes 1, while Milan scores 0.8 and concedes 1.2. In the first half, Sassuolo had over 1.5 goals once, under four times, and in the second half over 1.5 goals three times, under twice. Milan had over 1.5 goals twice in the first half, under three times, and in the second half over 1.5 goals once, under four times. Sassuolo most frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (38%), while Milan scores most often between the 46th and 60th minutes (50%). Sassuolo concedes most frequently between the 46th and 60th minutes (50%), Milan between the 31st and 45th minutes (50%). Overall, both teams do not show high scoring efficiency, with average goals around 2-2.2 per match, and the over 2.5 goals is not dominant. On this basis, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 2.20 seems reasonable, considering Milan's low scoring and Sassuolo's balanced matches.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

In the last five matches, Sassuolo averages 3.6 corners, Milan 2.2. For a total over 9.5 corners, Sassuolo had 3 occurrences out of 5, while Milan had only 1 out of 5. The combined average corners for both teams is 5.8. The nearest total with odds is 9.5: over 9.5 corners are priced at 1.99, under 9.5 at 1.97. Milan is favored in corners with odds of 1.68. Based on the average corner activity, a bet on under 9.5 corners is logical, as both teams average less than 6 corners combined.