Prediction for match Tondela — Nacional

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Portuguese Primeira Liga on April 25, Tondela will face Nacional. The odds suggest Nacional is the favorite, with a win priced at 2.52, Tondela's victory at 2.95, and a draw at 3.39. The probability distribution is as follows: Tondela win - 32.89%, draw - 28.62%, Nacional win - 38.50%. Thus, bookmakers slightly favor Nacional, but the gap between the teams is not significant. There are also various options for total goals and both teams to score, but the main focus is on the low scoring trends of both teams in recent matches.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Tondela has only secured two points: they lost 0-2 to Porto on April 19, drew 2-2 with Gil Vicente on April 13, suffered a heavy 0-5 defeat to Vitória Guimarães on April 3, drew 0-0 with ABC on March 21, and lost 0-1 to Rio Ave on March 9. Nacional has won two of their last five matches: they defeated Alverca 1-0 on April 18, lost 0-2 to Benfica on April 12, won 2-0 against Estrela on April 4, lost 0-1 to Famalicão on March 21, and were beaten 0-1 by Estoril on March 15. Over the last five games, Tondela averaged 49.4% possession, 2 yellow cards, 13.6 fouls, and 1 offside per match. Nacional averaged 48% possession, 3.2 yellow cards, 14.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. In head-to-head encounters, the last match was on December 15, 2025, where Nacional won 3-1 against Tondela.

How Many Goals Will Be Scored in the Tondela vs Nacional Match

The scoring rate of both teams in recent matches remains low. Tondela's average goals per game is 2.4, but they score only 0.4 and concede 2. Nacional's average total goals per match is 1.4, scoring 0.6 and conceding 0.8. For over 2.5 goals, Tondela has 2 out of 5 matches, while Nacional has none (0 out of 5). By halves, Tondela has 2 out of 5 for over 1.5 in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second half, while Nacional has 1 out of 5 in the first half and 0 out of 5 in the second. Tondela most often scores between the 46th and 60th minute (27%), while Nacional scores in two intervals: 0-15 and 61-75 minutes (43% each). Tondela concedes most frequently in four different periods: 16-30, 31-45, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (25% each). Nacional only concedes in the first 15 minutes (100%). All this suggests a low-scoring match, and a bet on under 2.5 goals seems justified. The odds for this outcome are 1.92.

Corners: Figures and Possible Bets

For average corners per match, Tondela has 3.8, and Nacional has 4.2. In the last five games, Tondela had 3 out of 5 matches with over 9.5 corners, and Nacional had 4 out of 5 with over 9.5. Among the presented totals for corners, the line closest to the average sum (8) is 8.5: over 8.5 corners is priced at 1.39, under 8.5 at 2.63. There's also a 9.5 line: over 9.5 at 1.70, under 9.5 at 2.01. For the outcome on corners, Tondela is the favorite with odds of 1.98. Considering both teams frequently exceed the upper total on corners in recent matches, it's logical to consider a bet on over 8.5 or 9.5 corners.