Prediction for match Toulouse — Lyon

Match Analysis: Toulouse vs Lyon

On May 10, 2026, in the French Ligue 1, Toulouse will face off against Lyon. According to the 1X2 odds, Lyon is the favorite with odds of 1.81, indicating a 54.45% chance of winning. A draw is priced at 4.16 (23.69%), while a victory for Toulouse is at 4.51 (21.85%). This suggests strong confidence in Lyon's strength, supported by both teams' recent performances. Additionally, the over 2.5 goals market is set at 1.81, whereas under 2.5 is at 2.15, hinting at a trend towards a high-scoring match.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Toulouse has an average possession of 38.6%, with 1.8 yellow cards, 14 fouls, and 1 offside per game. Lyon, over the same period, averages 49.8% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 0.2 offsides. Toulouse's recent matches include: May 3, 2026, Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse; April 25, 2026, Toulouse 2-2 Monaco; April 21, 2026, Lens 4-1 Toulouse. Lyon's last three games were: May 3, 2026, Lyon 4-2 Rennes; April 25, 2026, Lyon 3-2 Auxerre; April 19, 2026, PSG 1-2 Lyon. The last head-to-head match was on October 5, 2025: Lyon 1-2 Toulouse.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Toulouse saw over 2.5 goals in all 5 games, while Lyon had over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5. Toulouse's average total goals is 4.2, and Lyon's is 3.2. Toulouse scores an average of 1.4 and concedes 2.8, whereas Lyon scores 2.2 and concedes 1. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred 4 out of 5 times for Toulouse and 3 out of 5 for Lyon. Both teams had over 1.5 goals in the second half 3 out of 5 times. Toulouse most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minute (40%), while Lyon scores in three intervals: 31-45, 46-60, and 61-75 (each 27%). Toulouse concedes most often in the first 30 minutes (27% in both the 0-15 and 16-30 intervals), while Lyon concedes most in the first 15 minutes (33%). All this points to a high likelihood of a high-scoring match and the over 2.5 goals market succeeding.

Corner Totals Analysis

Toulouse averages 2.2 corners, while Lyon averages 5.8 per game. In the last five matches, both teams had over 9.5 corners 2 out of 5 times. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.82, while under 9.5 is 1.93. There is no clear favorite for corner outcomes, with both Toulouse and Lyon priced at 2.10 for a win on corners. Given the difference in average corners, it's logical to expect Lyon to create more set-piece opportunities, and the total corners to be close to 8-10 per match.