Prediction for match UCV Moquegua — Universitario

Who is the favorite in the UCV Moquegua vs Universitario match?

In the Peruvian Primera División on May 23, UCV Moquegua will face Universitario. The odds for a Universitario win are 1.95, a draw is at 3.44, and a win for UCV Moquegua is 3.70. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Universitario - 47.76%, draw - 27.07%, UCV Moquegua - 25.17%. These figures suggest Universitario is favored over their opponent, which is confirmed by both the odds and outcome percentages. The betting line also includes options for totals, both teams to score, and individual performances, but Universitario stands out as the main contender for victory in this matchup.

Team results and statistics

In their last five matches, UCV Moquegua has shown average stats: possession - 41.6%, yellow cards - 1.6, fouls - 10.6, offsides - 0.8. Over the same period, Universitario has displayed 49.8% possession, 2 yellow cards, 11 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. In their last three games, UCV Moquegua lost to Cultural Santa Rosa 0-1 (May 17), drew 2-2 with ADT (May 9), and lost to Alianza Lima 1-2 (May 3). Universitario, in their last three encounters, drew 0-0 with Nacional (May 20), lost 0-1 to Atlético Grau (May 16), and drew 0-0 with Sport Boys (May 12). Both teams have not been highly productive in these matches, with Universitario keeping two clean sheets.

Totals statistics

Regarding goal activity, UCV Moquegua has an average of 2.8 goals per match in their last five games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6. Universitario averages 1.8 goals per match, scoring 1 and conceding 0.8. For over 2.5 goals, UCV Moquegua had 4 out of 5, while Universitario had 2 out of 5. In the first half, UCV Moquegua had no matches over 1.5, Universitario had 1 out of 5. In the second half, UCV Moquegua recorded over 1.5 in 4 out of 5 cases, Universitario in 2 out of 5. UCV Moquegua most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minutes (33%) and concedes towards the end (76-90 minutes, 50%). Universitario distributes their goals evenly in the second half (33% in each of 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes) and concedes most often between the 16th and 30th minutes (50%). Considering Universitario's consistent defensive reliability and UCV Moquegua's tendency to concede in the second half, betting on a Universitario win seems logical given the current balance of power and statistics.

Corner totals analysis

UCV Moquegua has an average of 3 corners over five matches, while Universitario averages 5.4. For over 9.5 corners, UCV Moquegua had 1 out of 5, Universitario 2 out of 5. The line closest to the sum of average corners (8.4) is set at 8.5: over 8.5 corners is at 1.84, under 8.5 at 1.86. These figures suggest the match will likely see 8-9 corners, and betting on over 8.5 corners is justified by the current averages. Universitario tends to take more corners, which could impact the final statistics in this component.