Prediction for match Cruzeiro — Gremio

Match Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Gremio

In Brazil's Serie A on April 18, Cruzeiro will face Gremio. The odds for the match outcomes are as follows: Cruzeiro win at 1.73, draw at 3.78, and Gremio win at 5.03. The probability distribution is: Cruzeiro - 55.51%, draw - 25.40%, Gremio - 19.09%. Cruzeiro is considered the favorite, but the gap between a draw and a Gremio win isn't as large as between Cruzeiro and the other options. The most likely outcome according to the odds is a Cruzeiro victory, though bookmakers do not rule out a draw.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Cruzeiro averaged 55.8% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 13.6 fouls, and 0.8 offsides per game. Gremio's stats are as follows: 57.6% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. In their last three matches, Cruzeiro lost to Universidad Catolica 1-2 (15.04.2026), defeated RB Bragantino 2-1 (12.04.2026), and won against Barcelona SC 1-0 (08.04.2026). Recently, Gremio won against Deportivo Riestra 1-0 (14.04.2026), drew with Internacional 0-0 (11.04.2026), and lost to Montevideo City Torque 0-1 (09.04.2026). The last head-to-head match was on November 5, 2025: Gremio - Cruzeiro 0-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five-match series, Cruzeiro has averaged 3 goals per game, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4. Gremio's averages are noticeably lower: 1 goal per match, 0.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. For over 2.5 goals, Cruzeiro had 4 out of 5 matches with high scoring, while Gremio only had 1 out of 5. In the first half, Cruzeiro saw more than 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5 cases, Gremio never did. In the second half, Cruzeiro had 2 out of 5 for over 1.5, Gremio 1 out of 5. Cruzeiro most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minute (30%) and concedes between the 46th and 60th minute (40%). Gremio's goals are evenly distributed across four intervals (25% each), but they concede most often between the 31st-45th and 46th-60th minutes (50% each). Considering Gremio's low scoring and not very high average conceding, along with Cruzeiro having only one low-scoring match out of five, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.84 seems justified - especially given that Gremio has scored only twice in their last five matches and failed to score in three.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Cruzeiro averages 2.8 corners per game, while Gremio averages 4. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners, Cruzeiro had 2 out of 5 matches, and Gremio had 3 out of 5. In the odds for corner totals, you can find a couple of 9.5 totals: over 9.5 is at 1.68, under 9.5 is at 2.05. Cruzeiro is favored to win on corners with odds of 1.34. Based on the average figures of both teams, it makes sense to expect 6-7 corners per match, and a bet on under 9.5 corners could be interesting, considering the combined average of both teams is 6.8 per game.