Prediction for match Vasco da Gama — Sao Paulo

Match Analysis: Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo

In the Brazilian Serie A on April 18, Vasco da Gama will face Sao Paulo. According to the 1X2 odds, a win for Vasco da Gama is priced at 2.35, a draw at 3.23, and a victory for Sao Paulo at 3.27. Looking at the probability percentages, Vasco da Gama has a 40.88% chance of winning, a draw is at 29.74%, and Sao Paulo has a 29.38% chance. These figures suggest that Vasco da Gama is slightly favored, but the difference in chances is not significant. Interestingly, the odds for over/under 2.5 goals are 2.23 for over and 1.68 for under, indicating moderate expectations for scoring.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Vasco da Gama played as follows: April 15, 2026 - Vasco da Gama vs Audax Italiano - 1-2, April 11, 2026 - Remo vs Vasco da Gama - 1-1, April 7, 2026 - Barracas Central vs Vasco da Gama - 0-0. Sao Paulo's last three results were: April 14, 2026 - Sao Paulo vs O'Higgins - 2-0, April 11, 2026 - Vitoria vs Sao Paulo - 2-0, April 8, 2026 - Boston River vs Sao Paulo - 0-1. On average over five matches, Vasco da Gama has 53.6% possession, receives 1.8 yellow cards, commits 7.8 fouls, and has 1.6 offsides. Sao Paulo averages 57.2% possession, 2 yellow cards, 12.8 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. In their last head-to-head on November 2, 2025, Vasco da Gama lost to Sao Paulo 0-2.

How Many Goals in Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo Match

Over a five-match span, Vasco da Gama has an average total goals in a match of 2, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2. Sao Paulo has a higher average total goals of 2.4, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8. In terms of over 2.5 goals: Vasco da Gama had 2 out of 5 games over, while Sao Paulo had only 1 out of 5. By halves, Vasco da Gama had 0 out of 5 for over 1.5 in the first half, but 3 out of 5 in the second half. Sao Paulo had 1 out of 5 for over 1.5 in both halves. Vasco da Gama most frequently scores between 76-90 minutes (50%), and concedes most often from 61 to 90 minutes (33% and 33%). Sao Paulo's frequent scoring intervals are 0-15, 16-30, and 76-90 at 22%, while conceding occurs from 46 to 90 minutes (33% in each of the three intervals). Overall, both teams do not show a consistent over-profile, and Vasco da Gama's average goal-scoring is quite low. In this context, betting on under 2.5 goals at 1.68 seems most logical, considering both passing frequencies and average scoring figures.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

On average, Vasco da Gama earns 4.6 corners per match, and Sao Paulo 7.4, totaling 12. For over 9.5 corners: Vasco da Gama had only 1 out of 5 games over, while Sao Paulo had 4 out of 5. The closest total to the average sum is 9.5, with both outcomes available: over 9.5 at 1.93, under 9.5 at 1.81. Vasco da Gama is favored in corners with odds of 1.89. Given that Sao Paulo consistently earns many corners, considering over 9.5 corners in the match seems logical.