Prediction for match St. Pauli — VfL Wolfsburg

Odds and Probability of Match Outcome

In the Bundesliga on May 16, 2026, St. Pauli will face VfL Wolfsburg. According to the 1X2 betting odds, Wolfsburg is the favorite with odds of 2.40, reflecting a 41.08% probability of winning. St. Pauli is priced at 2.99 with a 32.97% chance of victory. A draw is at 3.80, with a 25.95% probability. This suggests a moderate advantage for Wolfsburg according to the bookmakers, but there's no significant gap between the teams. There are also options for totals and both teams to score, but Wolfsburg stands out as the most likely winner based on the current odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, St. Pauli lost to RB Leipzig 1-2 (May 9, 2026), lost to Mainz 05 1-2 (May 3, 2026), and lost to Heidenheim 0-2 (April 25, 2026). Wolfsburg, on the other hand, lost to Bayern Munich 0-1 (May 9, 2026), drew with Freiburg 1-1 (May 3, 2026), and had a goalless draw with Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 (April 25, 2026). Over the last five matches, St. Pauli has an average possession of 41.4%, receives 1.4 yellow cards, commits 7.2 fouls, and records 1.8 offsides per game. Wolfsburg averages 41.8% possession, 1 yellow card, 10.8 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. In their last head-to-head on January 14, 2026, Wolfsburg defeated St. Pauli 2-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, St. Pauli's games went over 2.5 goals three times and under twice. Wolfsburg's games went over 2.5 goals twice and under three times. St. Pauli has an average total of 3 goals per game, scoring 0.6 and conceding 2.4. Wolfsburg has an average total of 1.8 goals per match, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1. Based on halves, St. Pauli's matches went over 1.5 goals only once in the first half and three times in the second half. Wolfsburg's matches went over 1.5 goals once in the first half and twice in the second half. St. Pauli most frequently scores and concedes between the 76th and 90th minutes (33%), while Wolfsburg scores most often in the same interval at 67%, but concedes most frequently between the 46th and 60th minutes (43%). Given the low scoring nature of both teams, especially in attack, and Wolfsburg's frequent under 2.5 totals, a bet on under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.53 seems logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

St. Pauli averages 5.8 corners per match, while Wolfsburg averages 6.2. In the last five games, the total corners over 9.5 occurred three times for both teams. Among the available corner totals, the line closest to their combined average (12) is 11, with two outcomes: over 11 corners at 2.37, under 11 at 1.52. For corner outcomes, St. Pauli is the favorite with odds of 1.62. Given the activity of both teams in this metric, a bet on over 11 corners seems justified, though risky due to the high line. Individual corner totals for each team could also be considered, based on their averages over the last 5 matches.