Prediction for match Groningen — Excelsior

Odds and Probability Percentages

Groningen and Excelsior will face off on May 2, 2026, in the Eredivisie. According to the 1X2 odds, Groningen is the favorite: a win is priced at 1.71, a draw at 4.26, and an Excelsior victory at 4.52. The probability percentages for the main outcomes are as follows: 56.19% for a Groningen win, 22.55% for a draw, and 21.26% for an Excelsior win. This indicates Groningen's advantage in both odds and probabilities, though Excelsior is not a hopeless underdog by the numbers.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Groningen lost to Feyenoord 1-3 on April 25, drew 0-0 with Go Ahead Eagles on April 11, and defeated Telstar 2-0 on April 4. Excelsior, in their last three matches, thrashed Utrecht 5-0 on April 26, drew 2-2 with Zwolle on April 12, and lost 0-2 to NEC Nijmegen on April 4. The last head-to-head match was on December 5, 2025: Excelsior 0-2 Groningen. Looking at additional stats, Groningen's average ball possession over five matches is 50.8%, with 1.6 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. Excelsior has 51.4% possession, 0.6 yellow cards, 11.8 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. Overall, both teams show moderate discipline and similar ball control numbers.

Goals Statistics

Over the last five matches, Groningen has an average of 2.2 goals per game, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8. Excelsior's average is significantly higher at 3.2, with 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. For over 2.5 goals: Groningen has 2 out of 5, Excelsior has 3 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred once in 5 matches for Groningen, and 2 out of 5 for Excelsior. In the second half, both teams had over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches. Goal intervals show Groningen most frequently scores between 76-90 minutes (29%), while Excelsior scores most often between 46-60 minutes (40%). Groningen concedes most frequently in the last 15 minutes (76-90 - 75%), Excelsior between 16-30 minutes (50%). Given that both teams regularly score and concede, with average goals above 1.4 and over 2.5 goals occurring in at least two of their last matches, a bet on over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.54 seems logical.

Corner Bets

Groningen averages 6.2 corners over five matches, while Excelsior averages 2.6. For over 9.5 corners: Groningen has 3 out of 5, Excelsior has 1 out of 5. Available total corners bets include over 9.5 at 1.62, under 9.5 at 2.08. Groningen is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.41. Considering the difference in average corners and frequency, a bet on Groningen's individual total corners seems justified, with the overall total closer to 9-10.